Pricey Prospects for New Condos in SF Pipeline

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It’s been quite a year for developers of new construction condos and houses in San Francisco. After an economic downturn during which very few new projects were built in the city, construction lurched ahead again—particularly along the Market Street corridor, in Hayes Valley, the Mission and many other popular neighborhoods.

And oh, what a reception these new developments received! Projects such as 300 Ivy in Hayes Valley and ICON in the Castro sold out in record time, and at record prices. Buyers seemed very willing to pay a premium of $1,000-$1200/sq foot for new and shiny, particularly in transit- and retail-friendly communities. And 3500 19th Street at Valencia took advantage of the tech-buying boom and Mission mania by largely selling out all of its 17 condos with sales prices in the $1.3M-$2.3M range.

There are 1800 new construction units on tap for 2014, with more than 50,000 new units in the pipeline for the next six or more years. But if you’re a buyer who’s thinking about holding out until a unit in a particular building becomes available, be aware that prices will only go up from here. For example, currently being built is 35 Dolores, the former car repair warehouse across the street from the recently built rental building with Whole Foods as its anchor. 35 Dolores will likely finish construction in the summer, but will start selling in April. A majority of the units will be two bedrooms, and pricing for premium units will be $1500/sq foot.

Another very high-end project is 1645 Pacific, which is focusing on its handcrafted construction style that mimics an old-world, north-end-of-town architectural style. Final pricing hasn’t been released, but $1200/sq foot+ would seem to be the minimum starting point. The ultra luxury Park 181 at 181 Fremont will be asking $6M-$8M per unit, and Lumina (a.k.a. Infinity 3 and 4 at 201 Folsom) expects a $1B sellout by the time buyers finish snapping up all 651 units.

Not everything will be as stratospheric in price, though. But you can expect buildings like Fifteen Fifteen in the Mission, Onyx in Potrero, and Millwheel in Dogpatch to be in that $1,000/sq foot range. I believe upcoming Hayes Valley projects such as 400 Grove and 450 Hayes to be in the $1100+/sq foot range, based on 300 Ivy’s sales.

So if you’ve got you’re heart set on shiny and new, be prepared to pay a premium. If you want more space for the money, set your sights on the resale market. And if you have any questions on what’s in the works for new condos in any part of the city, please get in touch. Keeping track of all these cranes is a part-time job, and I can get you the scoop on whatever interests you.

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